Wood Mackenzie: Middle East conflict reshapes growth, resilience and partnerships across the region's largest NOCs
LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, Nov. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie | www.woodmac.com
The Middle East conflict has tested ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy, while highlighting sharp differences in export flexibility and portfolio diversification. Although all three companies remain resilient, the conflict has increased competing demands on capital, expertise and management attention, strengthening the role of partnerships at home and abroad.
Bypass routes, ship-to-ship shuttle transfers and a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have allowed Aramco and ADNOC to increase combined operating cash flow by around $35 billion, or 25%, against pre-war estimates.
But the recovery remains fragile and bypasses carry their own risks, as Houthi attacks on the East-West pipeline and Red Sea shipping have shown. Flows through the Strait are only partly restored and the windfall depends on elevated prices. QatarEnergy has taken the biggest hit, just as the North Field expansion was due to lift liquefaction capacity from 77 to 142 mmtpa.
In the near term, all three NOCs are focused on restoring capacity and strengthening export resilience. Over the longer term, the conflict will reshape business development priorities – domestic resource access, partnerships and M&A – both at home and abroad.
“The conflict has increased the number of competing priorities facing Middle East NOCs,” said Neivan Boroujerdi, Director, Corporate Research, Wood Mackenzie. “ADNOC, Aramco and QatarEnergy all face different challenges, but each is balancing domestic expansion, international growth and resilience simultaneously. Capital is not the constraint. Access to technology, markets and operational capability will shape the next phase, strengthening the role of partnerships across the sector."
Key findings:
Background:
Interest among IOCs and international NOCs in Middle East resources will remain high. Uncertain and volatile environments make low-cost barrels attractive, and the Middle East has the lowest of the lot. The region already accounts for around 15% of the Majors’ production today, rising to 17% by 2030. However, elevated geopolitical risk may lead some international companies to become more selective about future exposure and NOCs may need to widen their partnership pool to new entrants.
The conflict has reinforced the strategic rationale for international diversification in gas (ADNOC and Aramco) and exploration (QatarEnergy). But competition for non-Hormuz LNG and US gas will intensify, building on pre-war deals struck largely at or above Wood Mackenzie’s base-case NPV10. Ultimately, internationalisation is becoming less about growth and more about resilience through diversification. As NOCs balance domestic expansion with international growth ambitions, collaboration with IOCs will be required across upstream, gas and LNG development.
-ENDS-
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