India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia Set to Lead Global Aviation Growth – Avolon 2026 Outlook Paper
DUBLIN--( BUSINESS WIRE)--The continuation of low fuel prices and economic growth are expected to help global airline industry profits to reach US$41 billion in 2026, according to a paper published today by Avolon. This year is set to mark the fourth consecutive profitable year for the sector, helping airlines to recover over 80% of the US$182 billion lost during the pandemic.
India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are positioned to lead aviation’s next growth cycle, with the three countries’ combined order backlog at over 3,000 aircraft. This represents more than double the current in-service fleet, with 900 aircraft to be delivered over the next 3 years.
Demand fundamentals remain positive but airlines risk missing out on growth opportunities due to the persistent structural undersupply of aircraft. Order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years. The ongoing supply shortage will support higher lease rates and strong residual values, while increasing the strategic value of lessor-held slots for under-ordered airlines.
Avolon's 2026 Outlook: Up Next paper, available here, reviews the key trends in the aviation sector in 2026 and beyond, including:
Jim Morrison, Chief Risk Officer of Avolon commented:
“Global connectivity and economic growth continue to be supported by the aviation sector, underpinned by strong demand and lower fuel costs. India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are emerging as the next engines of growth with order backlogs that are double their current in-service fleet. With an industry requirement to finance around US$120 billion of new aircraft in 2026, lessors will continue to play a vital role as a driver of the transition of the global fleet to lower emissions new-technology aircraft.”
“Airline financial performance continues to strengthen, with the industry expected to record its fourth consecutive year of profitability. Airlines’ ability to capture sector tailwinds will be impacted by a shortage of new aircraft deliveries and the long order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing. Well-capitalised lessors with orderbooks of new-technology aircraft are strongly positioned to outperform in the current market.”
The paper – co-authored by Avolon’s Chief Risk Officer, Jim Morrison, and Senior Vice President, Portfolio Strategy, Ross McKeand – makes 7 forecasts:
Fearless Forecasts 2026
About Avolon
Avolon is a leading global aviation finance company connecting capital with customers to drive the transformation of aviation and the economic and social benefits of global travel. We pride ourselves on our deep customer relationships, our collaborative team approach, and our fast execution. We invest with a long-term perspective, diversifying risk and managing capital efficiently to maintain our strong balance sheet. Working with 139 airlines in 61 countries, Avolon has an owned, managed, and committed fleet of 1,132 aircraft, as of 31 December 2025. www.avolon.aero
Disclaimer
The views and forecasts set forth herein and in the 2026 Outlook are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of any other person or Avolon. This document, the 2026 Outlook Paper, and any other materials contained in or accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general information purposes only. The Materials are provided without any guarantee, condition, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to their adequacy, correctness or completeness. Any opinions, estimates, commentary or conclusions contained in the Materials represent the judgement of the authors as at the date of the Materials and are subject to change without notice. The Materials are not intended to amount to advice on which any reliance should be placed and Avolon disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the Materials.